Lock ‘em in: final predictions before the Oscars!
Hello everybody! We’re just a few hours from Hollywood’s best and biggest award show.
Like I’ve said several times before, “if Christmas had sex with my birthday, the resulting baby would be Oscar day” and I really mean that! Despite the usual tantrums and disagreements, I enjoy Oscar day to the fullest and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.
My friend Lily is coming over tomorrow to watch the telecast, which we’ll enjoy along with some beers and snacks! A (fake, of course) Oscar statuette I got in Hollywood will watch over the activities at the side of the TV.
Below, I share my final predictions for who’ll walk away with a little golden man this Sunday, as well as whom I think should walk away a worthy Academy Award winner.
Also, next week I’ll finally be posting my Top 10 of 2013 (yes, in March). I still haven’t seen all the films from last year I intended to, but as Oscar night marks the official end of the movie year, I can’t put it off any further.
Without further ado, here’s my forecast.
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Possible upset: Gravity
Should win: 12 Years a Slave or Gravity
12 Years a Slave is the most historically and culturally relevant choice, while Gravity is closer to my heart and an incredibly exhilarating film experience. I’d be happy with either one taking the gold.
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity
Possible upset: Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón
Cuarón would be the first Mexican and first Latin director to take home the coveted prize. Gravity is Alfonso’s baby and his dedication to the film is evident.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Possible upset: Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street (or Ejiofor)
I have nothing against McConaughey’s performance in DBC, but I liked the work of Ejiofor and DiCaprio a whole lot more. Even if an Oscar for Leo wasn’t long overdue, he deserves it for his performance in Wolf. But yes, it’s so overdue.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Possible upset: Amy Adams – American Hustle
Should win: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Blanchett gave possibly the best acting performance of 2013 and she will walk out with her second Oscar tomorrow night. Best Actress is my favorite category this year, as I’m a huge fan of all the women nominated. Wouldn’t be too upset if Bullock or Streep took home the award, but that’s not going to happen.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
Possible upset: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Should win: Daniel Brühl – Rush or Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners (alas, neither was nominated)
By far the weakest acting category this year, it’s even sadder when the two performances I consider the strongest supporting turns of the year (Brühl and Gyllenhaal) aren’t even in the discussion. Leto was good in DBC (I love the guy) but his role is so tiny and the movie would’ve worked just the same without Rayon.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Possible upset: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Should win: Lupita Nyong’o or Sarah Paulson, also for 12YAS (but not nominated)
Despite some epic overacting in one scene, Nyongo’s performance in Slave is stunning and heart-wrenching. Lawrence in Hustle is solid, at least when she doesn’t seem terribly miscast and too young for the part. It’s almost offensive that Paulson’s searing turn didn’t even get noticed.
Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Possible upset: Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Should win: Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Mexican cinematographer Lubezki has to win for his epic visuals in the space drama. Although, he supposedly had it in the bag for his contributions to The Tree of Life and still lost (I wanna cry just thinking about it).
Will win: Catherine Martin – The Great Gatsby
Possible upset: Michael Wilkinson – American Hustle
Should win: Catherine Martin – The Great Gatsby
Just look at this suit.
Will win: Steven Price – Gravity
Possible upset: Alexandre Desplat – Philomena
Should win: Alexandre Desplat – Philomena
Will win: “Let it Go” – Frozen
Possible upset: “Ordinary Love” – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Should win: “Happy” – Despicable Me 2
Even though I didn’t watch Despicable Me 2, or the first one, nor do I intend to ever see either, Pharrell’s song is just an amazing, upbeat, unbelievably catchy tune that musically embodies the word “happy”.
Will win: Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn – The Great Gatsby
Possible upset: K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena – Her
Should win: Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn – The Great Gatsby
Will win: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould – Gravity
Possible upset: There’s no way
Should win: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould – Gravity
Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Will win: John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
Possible upset: Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street
Should win: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
Writing – Original Screenplay
Will win: Spike Jonze – Her
Possible upset: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle or Alexander Payne – Nebraska
Should win: Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine or Alexander Payne – Nebraska
We agree on most of the Who Will Wins. The only major award on which we disagree is Supporting Actress. I think Lawrence will win.
I fear that, too. I think it’s up in the air. But I really hope Lawrence doesn’t win.
I don’t have the similar fear. I think Lawrence deserves it, was more important to her movie and gave the all around better performance. 🙂
(Now my winner is Octavia Spencer, but she wasn’t even nominated, so I can’t really root for her.)
We’ll just have to agree to disagree, haha! Octavia Spencer was good in Fruitvale but who I really can’t believe didn’t get in was Sarah Paulson for 12YAS.
I actually think Paulson was better than Nyong’o I wasn’t surprised by her omission, though. Nyong’o got all the love when the movie was released and even more from the guilds. I would have nominated Paulson over Roberts, personally.
But then I would have nominated Spencer over everyone. 🙂
(Incidentally, I agree that Supporting Female is the only acting award still in contention. I think Lawrence the clear favorite, but she isn’t guaranteed victory.)
Yeah, and normally when there are two potential nominees from one movie, one usually cancels the other out. I think I would’ve prefered Paulson over Squibb. Oprah Winfrey was snubbed too!
Windrey was definitely snubbed. But the category was so strong that I wouldn’t have nominated her either. In the end, I would have nominated Nyong’o over Paulson, because the former played the more important character.
I wouldn’t have nominated either Squibb or Roberts. But I would have picked Melanie Diaz over Paulson as well.
I guess, basically, I think Fruitvale deserved a lot of love. Instead of none. 🙂
I loved Roberts in Osage, so I would’ve nominated her, but I agree that Melonie Diaz was very strong in Fruitvale. Loved her performance. I really thought we’d see that one getting some love, even if I didn’t love it myself.
Well, we very quite a bit here lol. There’s no wrong or right answers when you’re dealing with Award Season, every nominee has an argument. I went with my heart this year, sick of conforming to idiotic groups acting like cults ;). For example, how the hell did ScarJo not even get nominated for Her? For that matter, what the hell Happened with Inside Llewyn Davis?! Completely snubbed!
Yeah, the Llewyn Davis snubs bothered me, but not as much as Prisoners being completely shut out.
I’ll second that. I was about to stage an argument saying it was too “straightforward’ of a movie to be recognized, but that’s completely not true. Prisoners was amazing. Then again, this is the Academy we are talking about. The same Academy that didn’t shine a light on Blackfish, nor Blue is the Warmest Colour, two of the biggest mistakes i took exception to
You’re right. Still, the Academy wasn’t the only one. Jackman and Gyllenhaal and the film itself were shut out of practically every award, which sucks. I was so sure Blackfish would be nominated for Best Documentary and while Blue wasn’t eligible for Best Foreign Picture for some weird reason I don’t remember, it was weird not seeing it up for ANYTHING.
Interesting. Do you know why it wasn’t eligible? It was in a foreign language with subtitles, so. . . I don’t know what the qualifications have to be, but I do know that was one amazing epic.
I think each country can only submit one film for that category and France sent Renoir
Prisoners is up for Best Achievement in Cinematography (Roger Deakins)
That’s right. I had forgotten about that. A well deserved nomination but it should’ve gotten more
Awesome Fernando! We both are rooting for Alfonso Cuarón so let’s hope there won’t be an upset in that department. I think there’ll be an upset if Lawrence wins again. I feel like the backlash is starting already. I do like her and she’s talented but she should NOT win this year. I’m sooo rooting for Hawkins but wouldn’t cry foul if Nyong’O took home the gold. She’s been so poised and adorable throughout award season, amazing for a newcomer!
Fingers crossed for Alfonso! And I agree that J-Law shouldn’t win this year. Hawkins was great but I’m rooting for Lupita. Glad you like her!
You’ve set this up pretty perfectly Fernando, can’t say I am in any major cahoots with your choices. (I love that word btw, just had to use it.) A couple of questions, though. Which scene do you speak of where Lupita “epicly overacts” in 12 Years? It’s not ringing a bell to me. Also, what made you think Amy Adams might take Best Lead Actress? Not supremely disagreeing there, that was just a big surprise, that’s all.
I simply cannot WAIT to see what the turn out is. I plan on doing a post revealing my minute-by-minute reactions to the selections. Hopefully it’ll turn out to be a juicy little post on DSB.
Thanks, Tom (and cahoots is a great word!)
And the scene I’m referring to is when she comes back from getting soap and Fass gets all riled up and wants to strike her. I think she went too over the top on that scene, and it was weird, especially since the rest of her performance is restrained.
And I put down Amy Adams only because she won the Globe and the Critics Choice Award. But I think it’s a very, very distant possibility.
So excited for the show! And looking forward to your reactions post 🙂
Wow. Your “will win” predictions are identical to mine all the way down. Usually when there’s a split between Director and Picture it’s a surprise. This year, we’re actually predicting it which is kind of odd. We shall see!
Glad we agree! And yeah, that split is not normal but it’s happening more and more, like it did last year.
I think 12 Years a S;ave will triumph in the Best Picture category but I’d love to see Gravity and 12 Years share Best Picture/Director – then again, if that were to happen does that mean the Academy couldn’t decide which one was most deserving of the top honor..?
Yeah, the split is always strange but I guess sometimes they consider some films as feats of great directing (Gravity) and others owe more to the script and cast (12YAS)
Leo or Chiwitel for best actor, especially Leo – long overdue and in The Wolf of Wall Street, he was at his absolute best.
I absolutely agree. I’d love to see one of those men come out on top, especially Leo.
I agree with most of your picks, but I have to say I think DALLAS BUYERS CLUB would have been a different film without Rayon. That character serves a few different purposes in the story. Unlike a lot of Oscar years, there is actual suspense…the only category I feel fairly certain about is Best Actress.
Yeah, that and Supporting Actor are the only locks, probably.